Restaurant Trade Area Research

In an excellent marketing move very likely to covert some folks into NEW breakfast users - Subway has made the Bacon, Egg, and Cheese Flatbread - The FOOTLONG 5.00 Sub of the month. One would assume that introducing a new daypart into a long standing competitive marketplace segment, breakfast, as Subway did last year, is a slow go at best. However, this featuring of the breakfast daypart sandwich - ALLDAY- should certainly get lunch and evening trial and therefore potentially stimulate the breakfast daypart. (Hasn’t McDonald’s said in the past that they were going to make their fun menu an allday choice? Burgers before 10:30 and Biscuits in the afternoon?) http://www.subwayfreshbuzz.com/menu/footlong_of_the_month/ GREAT IDEA.

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IS Sbarro going under? - Sbarro Wins Court Approval of $16.5 Million Financing While in Bankruptcy  - http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-05/sbarro-wins-court-approval-of-16-5-million-financing-while-in-bankruptcy.html - article sites rising cheese costs and slowing consumer sales. Long time brand names going under reflects the real market IMO.

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Carl Jr’s and Hardee’s go ALL IN on Turkey Burgers. - http://www.restaurantnews.com/carls-jr-hardees-first-national-fast-food-chains-offering-charbroiled-turkey-burgers/ - FIVE versions, heath positioning — first to do — great moves. Is TURKEY the next Angus?

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Meanwhile, BK has pulled back on forcing stores to stay open til 2AM - http://www.miamiherald.com/2010/12/15/1973901/burger-king-pulls-back-on-after.html — win for franchisees –  Here’s Saladworks approach to helping new franchisee operators find new site locations - http://www.restaurantnews.com/saladworks-executive-team-searching-for-new-sites/ - excellent reading.  —– My only suggestion would be to have some outside independent person (like myself) who has conducted trade area research at hundreds of FF restaurants - to also provide suggestions, especially if a location of the brand is already in the market and cannibalization is an issue.

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Sometimes it is funny reading employee reactions to various advertising campaigns - like this of an Arby’s employee - http://www.ryanlmueller.com/2011/02/nibble-giggle-repeat.html and here is another opinion - http://makethelogobigger.blogspot.com/2011/03/mcarbys.html

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In more evidence of the `recovery’ being largely spotty, segmented,  and a reflection of `reverse attrition’ from the closing of so many restaurants - Seafood restaurant sales largely in the tank - http://www.orlandosentinel.com/business/os-eating-less-seafood-20110227,0,711787.story and, as I’m sure you are aware - Analysis: U.S. immigration probe fears weigh on Chipotle - http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/03/01/us-usa-immigration-chipotle-idUSTRE72007S20110301

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Thanks for your visit today and return visit. Please bookmark and return - www.restauranttradearearesearch.com - Oh, lots to explore in the sidebar.

Today, I want to spend this paragraph encouraging restaurant owners to `get the big view’ of their real market situation. To understand that NEXT year - with proper information - you can do real local marketing that impacts your units.How you ask?

Hello, welcome back - I hope your Labor Day holiday was relaxing - that said, my thoughts go out to previous restaurant clients in Louisiana. Today, I want to spend this paragraph encouraging restaurant owners to `get the big view’ of their real market situation. To understand that NEXT year - with proper information - you can do real local marketing that impacts your units.

How you ask?

By doing my MarketView research for which you can find more info about at www.squidoo.com/tradeareasurveys — or go to the site for contact information for my services. If you call, make sure to ask me about the project I did for a fast food chain last year that involved doing over 10 stores and testing over 12 new site locations within the market - for under 30,000.00.

Now - onward to today’s restaurant links:

When Sonic Comes To Town

http://blogs.wenatcheeworld.com/thay/2008/08/28/sonic-wenatchees-newest-health-food-restaurant/ Just a fun story about a NEW restaurant for this community - Sonic. Covers the insanity of a grand opening, roller-skates, and the dealing with an unfamiliar menu by the consumer. Includes less than glorified pictures of the product served and at 10 bucks nonetheless.

Athens Burgers Opens New Restaurant

http://www.mantecabulletin.com/main.asp?SectionID=28&SubSectionID=58&ArticleID=59128&TM=16382.6 Here’s a newer concept to read about. Interesting combination.

Slow Food Conference

http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/ent/stories/DN-slowfood_0901gl.ART0.State.Edition1.4da40ac.html More and more stories emphasis is on going local with sources of products. Love the `meet the fisherman’ concept.

Wendy’s Rolls Out Double-Stack Nationwide at 99 Cents

http://sev.prnewswire.com/food-beverages/20080829/CLF006A29082008-1.html  Also, is giving away thousands of double stacks over the next year too - find out how.

Discount Dining

http://www.baltimoresun.com/entertainment/dining/bal-bz.restaurants02sep02,0,3747451.story Covers the story as to how restaurants are responding with lower price points in this economic downturn. Covers the marketing efforts of Boston Market, BJ’s Restaurants and Starbucks to name just a few.

Police Warn about TAKEOVER Robberies

http://www.nrn.com/breakingNews.aspx?id=358002&menu_id=1368  Good advice about this growing concern.

Spying On Suburbia - Eating At Arby’s

http://www.richmondchic.com/index.php/mind-body/article/spying-on-suburbia-a-home-like-arbys/268  Strange to interesting perceptions from this blog about Arby’s — 16.00 for two fast food.

Kiss an Attendent at a Fast Food Restaurant

http://www.latimes.com/theguide/music/la-gd-scavenger1-2008sep1,0,5200506.story Wild scavenger hunt includes wild ideas.

Last year, I personally interviewed several thousand fast food customers (in-store and drive-thru) in a variety of fast food brands for Trade Area Research purposes. (Do you need trade research before expanding your market?) This was normal for me as I have  personally interviewed thousands of fast food customers for dozens of years. And, as you might know, certain questions are nearly standard on questionnaires trying to understand customer behaviour - such as the fast food restaurant that the customer uses `most often’.

In the 1980’s and even into the late 1990’s - when adults answered that question for me — when the answer was McDonald’s - they would immediately offer a `reason’, in an apologetic tone, which invariably was `the kids’. That is not to say that I didn’t hear `they are everywhere’ and `they are cheap’ on occasion. Nevertheless, the interesting thing was that `other brands’ such as Wendy’s or Arby’s or Chick-Fil-A  or others (such as sandwich chains Subway) - most often users ALMOST NEVER offered up `embarrassing’ reasons for their usage of a particular brand most. Only McDonald’s. It was almost a case of doing `marketing’ too well.

Then, McDonald’s focused less on kids and more on product and product quality. I began to hear folks say that they liked a `particular new product’ at McDonald’s that they went for `most often’. Kids, as a reason, was definitely fading quickly (I informed my clients who at first seemed surprised in the early 2000’s — it was the kind of information that only came from literally being on the ground for multiple brands for decades) - the return of McDonald’s was approaching.

The moral - If the biggest can change a negative perception — other brands, most of which have neutral images, can also build a positive one - like McDonald’s has done.

Today’s Restaurant Links

“People are requesting kids premiums that are more socially responsible,”

http://www.ajc.com/business/content/business/stories/2008/08/16/restaurant_toys_educational.html Wendy’s and Chick-Fil-A jump on `Educational’ kids toys. Strong feedback. Three minute read.

Individual Responsibility And Its Enemies

http://www.mtexpress.com/index2.php?ID=2005122089  Bringing ethics into the fast food discussion with force. Shows how `choices’ and having a restaurant business are related. Three minute read.

Parking Mad At McDonald’s

http://icwestlothian.icnetwork.co.uk/courier/news/tm_headline=parking-mad-at-fast-food-chain&method=full&objectid=21526230&siteid=92284-name_page.html After the positive McDonald’s opinion above - here is an example of not respecting the customer. Probably.

Arby’s Expands Savings Potential With Cellfire Mobile Coupons

http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/prnewswire/200808130900PR_NEWS_USPR_____AQW047.htm Here’s a new coupon niche.

Are Restaurant Stocks A BUY?

http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/yourmoney/chi-ym-restaurants-0817-cpaug17,0,4787885.story Article says yes if you have a longer time horizon of 2-3 years; while detailing how over stocked the trade areas are with restaurants. Predicts store closings. Four minute read.

Many Many more - current links below. Bookmark and return please. Leave a comment if you wish.

At the corner of Sandy Plains Road and Hwy 92 in North Atlanta you will find a Back Yard Burgers that has gone out of business. Most likely the owners did their due diligence and checked out the basics like traffic counts and the demographic profile of the area. Not only that, I bet what they found sounded perfect for the Back Yard Burgers positioning as an upscale hamburger restaurant. Indeed, the intersection has huge amounts of traffic and the demographics of the area would indicate `families’, plenty of roof tops, and plenty of income.  That said, the fact that a Checkers went out of business at the corner on the opposite side of the street - could have indicated that the location be viewed with caution. (The Checkers challenged an existing McDonald’s. The corner is now home to an Italian sit down restaurant.)

So, what happened? Personally, since I was a VERY light user (3 times in perhaps 3 years) I can’t speak to operations of the unit - but the experiences of my 3 in-store visits went very well. No negatives. So, assuming it wasn’t an operation problem - what gives?

What gives is that you need MORE than perfect demos and traffic counts; you need to understand the real market potential of an intersection. And, the real traffic flows for `your side of the street’.

First off, before you think the intersection was `too busy’ and had huge back-up’s of traffic that no one would want to get `re-involved’ with after visiting the restaurant - forget that. This is a well flowing traffic pattern. That said, most restaurant owners are aware that some intersections are `too busy’ and don’t make a `good spot’ sometimes.

No, it wasn’t that at all. The problem with the traffic counts in this instance was that most of it was `long - flow traffic’ — most of it going miles beyond that intersection as a final destination. Additionally, the location had difficult access due to raised cement in the median - bad access especially can limit great lunch numbers; and females.

Additionally, the trade area likely did not have good daytime worker demographics - as one would assume the `hamburgers’ skews male in positioning - and, likely, not even a strong daytime worker number compared to other intersections with less traffic.

Finally, another word about demographics — a given stores demo’s will almost NEVER fit the demo’s for a 1-3-5 mile area. Most restaurants need to know what subgroups are likely to be important (those with higher indexes) to a normal store like theirs. IF you have a restaurant that features 1/3 lb. burgers — you might want to know the indexing of males within the real trade area. (The real trade area of this store was probably ONLY Sandy Plains Rd. and probably mostly on their side of the traffic flow within 2 miles before Wigley Rd. — NOT a big real trade area.)

But, finally, the real story in this instance - was probably the competitive environment. A Five Guys opened in the direct competitive area, probably cutting off and being `first’ to a large part of Back Yard Burgers lunch traffic and even dinner traffic - and in a more accessible (in and out) location. Splitting the hamburger business with McDonald’s was one thing - 3 way splits - can close a marginal restaurant with poor access to traffic flow.

Looking over potential sites - is a service I’ve provided - find out more about my Trade Area services at www.squidoo.com/tradearearesearch

Today’s Links

Woman Wants To Limit Fast Food Restaurants

http://www.todaystmj4.com/news/local/26152264.html Now that laws have started by activists to limit fast food locations - expect to see your local do gooder getting more and more exposure for such thinking. This is a story about a neighborhood group that says 6 fast foods on a road are enough - too bad for the Church’s Chicken.

Jake Says `Don’t Use The Drive-Thru’

http://poststar.com/wordpress/?p=5836&cat=47    Seeing the miles at zero while sitting at the drive-thru; will bring out the Greens.

The EAT IN Lunch User

http://www.chainleader.com/article/CA6581159.html?industryid=47557 Quarterly survey by Quick - Track; real research and real numbers.

In my decades of doing Trade Area Research, specializing in `attrition estimates’, — I’ve often done projects that involved market expansion considering new store locations that involved one franchisee vs another. Usually, these project originated with companies in which I was the National Supplier of this service (two national fast food chains) but occasionally not (being known by different franchisee’s in the same market who hired me as an arbitrator/fact finder).

Most national fast food brands have a policy concerning `trade area infringment’ - with the establishment of `what level of attrition’ is `acceptable’ with new store development (those `acceptable’ dollars leaving YOUR pocket and bottom line). And, most fast food brands have a policy of `who pays’ for such research too. Want to find out that type of info? — Then send me an e-mail at southernsurveys@aol.com - describe your situation and I will tell you more specifics (please include a contact phone number).

Today’s Restaurant Links

Brown Bagging at Lunch Hurting Restaurant Sales

http://www.qsrmagazine.com/articles/news/story.phtml?id=6996 —A fantastic, research supported, four minute read with many insights - but, perhaps an exaggerated title about brown baggers as the `increase’ is barely measurable (35 increasing to 38 times (a year?)) and is probably within the range of `plus or minus’ for the two compared surveys. Here’s a quote from the article :

“There are a number of factors adversely affecting the mid-day meal business at restaurants, and brown-bagging is one of them,” says Harry Balzer, vice president, The NPD Group, and author of Eating Patterns in America. “Certainly the economy, growing unemployment, the erosion of disposable personal income, slow-down in number of women entering the workforce, and more telecommuting options are also influencing consumers’ lunchtime behaviors

Frankly, to me, the decrease of sales is likely the erosion of disposable income and telecommuting - brown bagging is the result as opposed to a cause. Indeed, for consumers living in under-penetrated fast food markets (one FF several miles away) the increase in GAS prices is probably a factor too. After all, the 3.99 combo is REALLY 5.99 if the roundtrip is 10 miles and you get 20 miles a gallon.

The reality of smaller trade areas is increasing - and - not just because of the gas price — I will talk more about that in future posts.

KFC’s Vegetarian Sandwich - Isn’t

http://consumerist.com/5027777/kfcs-vegetarian-sandwich-isnt-stop-kidding-yourself-that-fast-food-restaurants-have-vegetarian-options  I almost had to laugh at this article due to the HARD vegetarian position. Indeed, make sure to read the comments as they are most insightful.

Drive-Thru Reseach Study 2007

http://www.qsrmagazine.com/reports/drive-thru_time_study/  This is a MUST read about how different fast food brands are dealing with Drive-thru business - vital, of course, to nearly all FF and the bottom line. This is not a short read but worth it. Here’s a sample table:

Having done scores and scores of projects in fast food restaurants over decades - I’ve often advised clients to do `operation ratings’ on our questionnaires. This might involve asking respondents (your customers) to rate things like speed of service, cleanliness of the unit, value for the money and so forth. But, the one attribute that when `crossed’ with frequency of usage that stands out is `friendliness of the employees’.

It seems that in this day and age - despite being told by the media we are off in our own world and don’t want to be bothered - that customers react to friendliness MOST. Since the person who interacts with the customer is the main person to project this image — it is imperative to make sure that person has a friendly engaging voice (at the drive thru speaker) and in-person on the cash register - that the person is one of your BEST employees for eye contact and smiling. (Again, a good clear voice is needed).

In future posts, I’ll tell you specific figures for how often a customer uses a restaurant when they rate friendliness an 8 rather than a 10 — once you know, you will act quickly. Don’t wait - do it today.

Today’s Links

NYC Chains Have to Post Calorie Counts

http://www.bloggernews.net/116809   Yep, right next to the product on the menu, in the same font, must be the calorie count. Logic would suggest that some shift in food orders will be the result of such laws. It would also suggest some erosion of usage perhaps by less committed users of your brand.

Calorie Counts on Menu Boards

http://www.chattershmatter.com/2008/07/20/nyc-fast-food-chains-add-calory-counts-to-menu-boards/  Same story, slightly different slant.

Law to Restrict Location of Fast Food Restaurants in LA

http://thepacker.com/icms/_dtaa2/content/wrapper.asp?alink=2008-16452-821.asp&stype=produceconcepts&fb= In South-Central LA - to improve health of youth. Here the hope is that by restricting Fast Food Brands that `other healthier’ choices will open shop.

Based on today’s links - Government involvement in FF seems just another example of our BIG government.

Of course, one of the main reasons to do on-site research at your restaurant is when you decide to build a new unit in your same market. Obviously, you don’t want to build a new location in a likely spot that is within your existing stores main trade area. This is when you need to conduct a Trade Area Survey at your restaurant that includes a `cannibalization question’ for your customer base.

The exact wording of  the cannibalization question is of vital importance to the accuracy of the data your interviewer will gather (or is this going to be YOU speaking with your customers). Since I have written questionnaires that were used in 100’s of cannibalization studies - I know that answer for you. You can find more at www.squidoo.com/tradeareasurveys .

Today’s Link

Starbucks Introduces New Drinks

http://www.slashfood.com/2008/07/15/starbucks-new-vivanno-nourishing-blend/?icid=200100397×1205764383x1200288208

New `food’ choices (or a new menu) are real reasons for returning to a restaurant - another reason to introduce a new product is to jump on a trend or stifle a competitor. Seems to fit with the `new’ Starbucks of 2008.