Restaurant Trade Area Research

As far as the Woodstock Georgia fast food market is concerned  - restaurants continue to be under competitive pressures with strong discounting and `new and interesting’ promotions to offset the continued shrinking of customer bases. Indeed, just recently, ABC - the Atlanta Bread Company in Woodstock had a Sunday evening `Murder theater’ (with actors of course) near closing time for which tickets at 10.00 per head were sold. These `patrons’ would have an additional chance to purchase food and dessert from the unit too - for enjoyment when watching the play.

And, the discounting continues at all levels from Waffle Houses 4.99 meals, to 4.00 KFC meals, to 99 cent Dunkin Donut specials, to the buck level at Checkers, Wendy’s and — whatever special Arby’s has going at a various promotion period. In the nearby Sandy Plains/Shallowford area the Boston Market was doing bounce back coupons for buy one meal - get one meal —— that’s up to a 6.99 value — (and one our family took advantage of) and up to 50% off. And, within the past month, Arby’s was giving the `RoastBurger’ away with the purchase of a drink (& Quizno’s also gave away it’s small sandwich.)

Couple all this with promotions from the last posting - many of which are still going on in one form or another (including daypart pricing) - and you have a very sensitive price market the likes of which haven’t been seen in a long long time, if ever. Increasingly, `eating out’ is positioned by the media as the one way that Americans are cutting back and saving money. And, again increasingly, the eating out `habit’ is being broken at some level.

Indeed, the extreme multi times a week users (4+ times a week)  - while usually not  a huge element in most fast foods - is largely gone - as these hardest regulars have become part of the once a week users - generally. And, while most of the two times a week or once a week users have hung on in most circumstances - especially in white collar, lunch oriented restaurants - those users are probably most reduced in the evening timeframes.

Probably most affected frequency wise in customer bases are the occasional once a month type users - who have often fallen into the `never use anymore’ or seldom use category - as consumers tighten up into their most favorite choices. NEW customers, once a mainstay at 3-8% of all fast food customers is again - almost nil. (Why waste precious money on places without a proven track record?)

So, with all this - with restaurants of all kinds closing (which does help others who survive in degrees) - with frequency rates dropping - with price pressures at every turn - the question must be asked if this is the bottom to be endured - or - a new normal? (No one wants to think it could be worse - and indeed - as competition closes - the `replacement effect’ of the `new meal occasions’ to be filled in the local market - will modify - to a degree - further downturns.)

Indeed, if the downturn continues for much longer - say - another year (an overly negative view compared to consensus) - we could see some companies go to a more innovative way of pricing their food products. Perhaps combos will once again reflect a real `savings’ as opposed to an easy way to order in a few words. Perhaps we will see the drive thru priced in a different manner - compared to inside customers. Perhaps drinks will become cheaper at the drive-thru (as no re-fills occur).

Indeed, perhaps we will see `customer loyalty’ cards be set at effective levels - buy two combos get one free - for example —- as opposed to cards that required too many uses to motivate a customer base. Or, even `in-store’ contests to motivate the bigger instore spender - or - targeting the very largest purchasers (only) with a `discount’ on that next purchase (setting the level at transactions in the highest 5% total) - showing recognition of these remaining `special’ customers.

Because, as Dylan said, the times,  they are a changin - and, previous practices and marketing approaches - especially if they all sound the same - may have little useful effect. It may take new approaches and new ideas of consumerism to survive to the other side of the downturn - and - it’s not too early to begin to consider such ideas.

While I’m not sure of how many markets have the new Arby’s ad - sometimes attention grabbing `humorous’ ads might not be worth it. If you haven’t seen the new ad - two workers out in a field are hungry for lunch; one guy laments he has only 5 bucks; the other says we can go to Arby’s for any of their toasted subs, curly fries, and a drink for 5 bucks (hope the guy has some pocket change for the tax); and his friend, not believing the deal says if that is so `I’ll marry a goat’.

Flash forward to the `friend’ now dressed in a tux sitting next to a goat in full bride headset — while his friend sitting across from him, while gawking at the goat, whispers from behind his Toasted Sub with a wink to his friend that `She’s HOT’. Leaving the viewer wondering about the newlyweds first evening together as the punchline humor.

Verdict - 4.99 combos on a large sandwich at Arby’s good - usage of marginal humor - not so good. Especially after multiple viewings.

Ok, onwards to today’s links — with MUCH emphasis on Drive-thru’s.

QSR Names FF Restaurant With Best Drive-thru

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/qsr-magazine-names-americas-best/story.aspx?guid=%7B2EA0E58A-DFBE-48D6-8AA9-0FA581B99F7C%7D&dist=hppr Chick-fil-A is overall winner - most accurate and clearest speakers. Much more in this excellent 2 minute read.

The END of the Drive-Thru?

http://www.qsrmagazine.com/articles/features/120/emissions-1.phtml  Talk about how idling laws in Canada may become important to even your business.

Amputee On Motorized Scooter Banned From Drive-Thru

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/top-stories/2008/10/07/mcdonald-s-ban-amputee-on-mobility-scooter-from-drive-thru-115875-20782800  Common sense but a fun article.

Is Drive-Thru Nation in Idle?

http://www.nj.com/independentpress/index.ssf/2008/10/lost_in_suburbia_losing_direct.html The continuing `drive’ against drive-thrus — from bank tellers to libraries and post offices - and of course - restaurants.

The Education of the Fast Food Nation

http://media.www.theorion.com/media/storage/paper889/news/2008/10/08/Opinion/Fast-Food.Nation.Needs.Lesson.In.Healthy.Eating-3475751.shtml

That is it for today — much more below too.

At the corner of Sandy Plains Road and Hwy 92 in North Atlanta you will find a Back Yard Burgers that has gone out of business. Most likely the owners did their due diligence and checked out the basics like traffic counts and the demographic profile of the area. Not only that, I bet what they found sounded perfect for the Back Yard Burgers positioning as an upscale hamburger restaurant. Indeed, the intersection has huge amounts of traffic and the demographics of the area would indicate `families’, plenty of roof tops, and plenty of income.  That said, the fact that a Checkers went out of business at the corner on the opposite side of the street - could have indicated that the location be viewed with caution. (The Checkers challenged an existing McDonald’s. The corner is now home to an Italian sit down restaurant.)

So, what happened? Personally, since I was a VERY light user (3 times in perhaps 3 years) I can’t speak to operations of the unit - but the experiences of my 3 in-store visits went very well. No negatives. So, assuming it wasn’t an operation problem - what gives?

What gives is that you need MORE than perfect demos and traffic counts; you need to understand the real market potential of an intersection. And, the real traffic flows for `your side of the street’.

First off, before you think the intersection was `too busy’ and had huge back-up’s of traffic that no one would want to get `re-involved’ with after visiting the restaurant - forget that. This is a well flowing traffic pattern. That said, most restaurant owners are aware that some intersections are `too busy’ and don’t make a `good spot’ sometimes.

No, it wasn’t that at all. The problem with the traffic counts in this instance was that most of it was `long - flow traffic’ — most of it going miles beyond that intersection as a final destination. Additionally, the location had difficult access due to raised cement in the median - bad access especially can limit great lunch numbers; and females.

Additionally, the trade area likely did not have good daytime worker demographics - as one would assume the `hamburgers’ skews male in positioning - and, likely, not even a strong daytime worker number compared to other intersections with less traffic.

Finally, another word about demographics — a given stores demo’s will almost NEVER fit the demo’s for a 1-3-5 mile area. Most restaurants need to know what subgroups are likely to be important (those with higher indexes) to a normal store like theirs. IF you have a restaurant that features 1/3 lb. burgers — you might want to know the indexing of males within the real trade area. (The real trade area of this store was probably ONLY Sandy Plains Rd. and probably mostly on their side of the traffic flow within 2 miles before Wigley Rd. — NOT a big real trade area.)

But, finally, the real story in this instance - was probably the competitive environment. A Five Guys opened in the direct competitive area, probably cutting off and being `first’ to a large part of Back Yard Burgers lunch traffic and even dinner traffic - and in a more accessible (in and out) location. Splitting the hamburger business with McDonald’s was one thing - 3 way splits - can close a marginal restaurant with poor access to traffic flow.

Looking over potential sites - is a service I’ve provided - find out more about my Trade Area services at www.squidoo.com/tradearearesearch

Today’s Links

Woman Wants To Limit Fast Food Restaurants

http://www.todaystmj4.com/news/local/26152264.html Now that laws have started by activists to limit fast food locations - expect to see your local do gooder getting more and more exposure for such thinking. This is a story about a neighborhood group that says 6 fast foods on a road are enough - too bad for the Church’s Chicken.

Jake Says `Don’t Use The Drive-Thru’

http://poststar.com/wordpress/?p=5836&cat=47    Seeing the miles at zero while sitting at the drive-thru; will bring out the Greens.

The EAT IN Lunch User

http://www.chainleader.com/article/CA6581159.html?industryid=47557 Quarterly survey by Quick - Track; real research and real numbers.

When it flashed across the newswires and TV headlines - most readers were stunned - suddenly, a restaurant icon was `shutting its doors’ - Bennigan’s. No, this was not your lowly newbie who was closing after 50 stores; this was one with hundreds and a history. And, if you have been under a rock for the last 18 hours - the news is that the company owned stores are closing. You will find the link below.

Is there any marketing trade area information in all this? Perhaps.

For example, if a company unit was near a franchisee restaurant - some of that company unit customer base may become part of the large  `occasional’ users customer base of any given unit. Certainly billboard ads in the vicinity of the closed store with an `open stores location’ could be effective - or - targeting the likely home zipcode of the closed store with direct mail. (Perhaps corporate will share such info if they have done the appropriate research at the store level in the past.)

Finally, not ALL of the corporate units would have been `bad’ sales - aggressive restaurateurs could open franchisee units and fill in the void in valid market areas. That said, suddenly the market has many more empty restaurants waiting for a new concept.

Today’s Links

Bennigan’s

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/bennigans-franchising-company-lp-steak/story.aspx?guid=%7BE5283276-F8A1-44C4-8D83-EB9857B37D11%7D&dist=hppr   Franchisee’s to remain open.

Bennigan’s Wake

http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/chi-wed-bennigans-closing-jul30,0,6474654.story Longer, more in-depth read on the industry.

Denny’s Second Quarter Numbers

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/dennys-corporation-reports-results-second/story.aspx?guid=%7B2B41FDD2-AB42-402E-BCB2-42880BCED8F6%7D&dist=hppr Hard to put up `up’ numbers these days.

Banning Fast Food Drive Thru Windows

http://network.nationalpost.com/np/blogs/posted/archive/2008/07/29/better-watch-your-butts-in-calgary.aspx Beware of this sentiment.

Cheesy Macaroni Bites

http://laist.com/2008/07/29/simply_wrong_food_jack_in_the_boxs_1.php New Product of Jack In The Box; interesting product picture.

In my decades of doing Trade Area Research, specializing in `attrition estimates’, — I’ve often done projects that involved market expansion considering new store locations that involved one franchisee vs another. Usually, these project originated with companies in which I was the National Supplier of this service (two national fast food chains) but occasionally not (being known by different franchisee’s in the same market who hired me as an arbitrator/fact finder).

Most national fast food brands have a policy concerning `trade area infringment’ - with the establishment of `what level of attrition’ is `acceptable’ with new store development (those `acceptable’ dollars leaving YOUR pocket and bottom line). And, most fast food brands have a policy of `who pays’ for such research too. Want to find out that type of info? — Then send me an e-mail at southernsurveys@aol.com - describe your situation and I will tell you more specifics (please include a contact phone number).

Today’s Restaurant Links

Brown Bagging at Lunch Hurting Restaurant Sales

http://www.qsrmagazine.com/articles/news/story.phtml?id=6996 —A fantastic, research supported, four minute read with many insights - but, perhaps an exaggerated title about brown baggers as the `increase’ is barely measurable (35 increasing to 38 times (a year?)) and is probably within the range of `plus or minus’ for the two compared surveys. Here’s a quote from the article :

“There are a number of factors adversely affecting the mid-day meal business at restaurants, and brown-bagging is one of them,” says Harry Balzer, vice president, The NPD Group, and author of Eating Patterns in America. “Certainly the economy, growing unemployment, the erosion of disposable personal income, slow-down in number of women entering the workforce, and more telecommuting options are also influencing consumers’ lunchtime behaviors

Frankly, to me, the decrease of sales is likely the erosion of disposable income and telecommuting - brown bagging is the result as opposed to a cause. Indeed, for consumers living in under-penetrated fast food markets (one FF several miles away) the increase in GAS prices is probably a factor too. After all, the 3.99 combo is REALLY 5.99 if the roundtrip is 10 miles and you get 20 miles a gallon.

The reality of smaller trade areas is increasing - and - not just because of the gas price — I will talk more about that in future posts.

KFC’s Vegetarian Sandwich - Isn’t

http://consumerist.com/5027777/kfcs-vegetarian-sandwich-isnt-stop-kidding-yourself-that-fast-food-restaurants-have-vegetarian-options  I almost had to laugh at this article due to the HARD vegetarian position. Indeed, make sure to read the comments as they are most insightful.

Drive-Thru Reseach Study 2007

http://www.qsrmagazine.com/reports/drive-thru_time_study/  This is a MUST read about how different fast food brands are dealing with Drive-thru business - vital, of course, to nearly all FF and the bottom line. This is not a short read but worth it. Here’s a sample table:

Having done scores and scores of projects in fast food restaurants over decades - I’ve often advised clients to do `operation ratings’ on our questionnaires. This might involve asking respondents (your customers) to rate things like speed of service, cleanliness of the unit, value for the money and so forth. But, the one attribute that when `crossed’ with frequency of usage that stands out is `friendliness of the employees’.

It seems that in this day and age - despite being told by the media we are off in our own world and don’t want to be bothered - that customers react to friendliness MOST. Since the person who interacts with the customer is the main person to project this image — it is imperative to make sure that person has a friendly engaging voice (at the drive thru speaker) and in-person on the cash register - that the person is one of your BEST employees for eye contact and smiling. (Again, a good clear voice is needed).

In future posts, I’ll tell you specific figures for how often a customer uses a restaurant when they rate friendliness an 8 rather than a 10 — once you know, you will act quickly. Don’t wait - do it today.

Today’s Links

NYC Chains Have to Post Calorie Counts

http://www.bloggernews.net/116809   Yep, right next to the product on the menu, in the same font, must be the calorie count. Logic would suggest that some shift in food orders will be the result of such laws. It would also suggest some erosion of usage perhaps by less committed users of your brand.

Calorie Counts on Menu Boards

http://www.chattershmatter.com/2008/07/20/nyc-fast-food-chains-add-calory-counts-to-menu-boards/  Same story, slightly different slant.

Law to Restrict Location of Fast Food Restaurants in LA

http://thepacker.com/icms/_dtaa2/content/wrapper.asp?alink=2008-16452-821.asp&stype=produceconcepts&fb= In South-Central LA - to improve health of youth. Here the hope is that by restricting Fast Food Brands that `other healthier’ choices will open shop.

Based on today’s links - Government involvement in FF seems just another example of our BIG government.

I once pulled into a fast food restaurant in Tennessee off I-75, and, was going thru the drive-thru, when, after the speaker, I encountered a smiling young lady doing `surveys’. Being a marketing researcher who has conducted thousands of similar surveys and also who has trained hundreds to do the same - this was the big moment - a validation of what I did. But, after my answer to the first question (the coming from question) I was asked to move ahead to the window (my answer was that I had traveled from KY on a vacation). Knowing that they would want more info than that - I asked what the survey was about - she indicated it was about a new store that would be north of this one, also on a I-75 exit (I would have passed this first). I said, don’t you want to ask me more questions - “no, I can fill it out myself”.

Unfortunately, it’s very unlikely this interviewer was doing her job and certainly there were more questions about an attrition situation — which is of vital importance to the operator of the exisiting unit in question. And, while this level of `research’ is not usual, and also is WORTH NOTHING, it often represents a fair portion of the data (using interviewers not trained or supervised upon beginning real interviewing). As you know, as an owner of a restaurant — millions may ride on the outcome of `cannibalization’ surveys - if done at multiple units in a market.

Having the highest level of data collection is of utmost importance to expansion within a trade market - a service I provide - read more about trade area surveys at www.squidoo.com/tradeareasurveys .

Today’s Links

1. http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/apwire/e6edbb1117015e037cd739ba89205815.htm

DineEquity Inc releases 2Q sales for same stores - shows IHOP up, Applebee’s down. Quick read.

2.

http://www.bizjournals.com/triangle/stories/2008/06/23/daily27.html

Olive Garden has same store increase, not as good for others in company.

3. http://www.streetinsider.com/IPOs/Dave+&+Busters+Holdings+(DANB)+Files+$170M+IPO/3816999.html

Dave and Busters files IPO. We have D&B in Atlanta - the evolution of this concept has been well executed. The TV ads of the combo food and fun price were well positioned. FUN sells.

4 - LINK OF THE DAY — “TGI FRIDAY’S” Research study. - http://www.chainleader.com/article/CA6578744.html?industryid=47553

Wonderful research study showing the benefits of research and customer satisfaction - and, what attributes to focus on to achieve that result. Free food, of course - but much more. A great marketing article.

Hello store owners and corporate restaurant folk - welcome to the Saturday edition of Restaurant Trade Area Research - the restaurant blog of Rick Phillips  - a market researcher with over three decades of real fast food customer research at the street level (in the stores).

Today’s topic - drive thru operations. —- Over the years, many attributes have been associated with drivers/customers experiences while waiting to purchase your product without leaving their comfort cage (the car). But only one attribute will almost immediately turn away a customer if they have any alternatives for food - the long line before the speaker. Only with previous good experiences with the restaurant at the drive thru (with long lines), will maintain the customer in line for today.

With the drive thru often contributing over 50% in sales - this is not a lecture on the need for speed. And, indeed, many issues related to drive-thru’s will be explored in future postings. So, what this post is imploring in all operators minds is the new reality of 4.00 gas - to the point that the operator realizes that `while idling’ the customer is probably having this thought `what a waste’ (of money, more than time).

Marginal customers to the fast food customer base may be weakened more than usual by drive thru delays - especially those in SUV’s (if you get what I mean). So, this is more a time than ever to get your best crew on the window - don’t idle your drive-thru traffic away.

Now, onto today’s links.

Today’s Restaurant links (July 12th 2008)

Second Q Wendy’s Sales Up

Link - http://www.bizjournals.com/wichita/stories/2008/07/07/daily32.html

Up over 1% at franchisee locations - up at company stores too - after a down first Q.      RTAR - rating - 8 - Being from Ohio many years ago; yeah for Wendy’s. Perhaps the `choice’ of sides attribute helps.

Ruby Tuesday’s Same Store Sales Off for 4th Q

Down over 5% at both company and franchised units this Q. That said, many indicators look good according to the two minute article with quotes from the founder. >>>>>>>>>> RTAR  rating - 5 - No one likes sales to fall significantly at a signature national restaurant (could it be those who loved the German Potato Salad?) - that said, much is sited in the article of importance including the satisfaction scores. So; is it a shrinking total trade area? (Trade area research on stores with prior existing studies done at the store level reveals this information. Indeed, this is the exact information I’ve given to clients on repeats within their markets.) Or, just the competitiveness for the discretionary dollar?

Green Fast Food - Really Here or a Green Dream

Link: http://www.socialfunds.com/news/article.cgi/2529.html  This article is about a 4 minute read. It rehashs alot of the grist of what the environmenalists want out of companies and fast food restaurants inparticular. Styrofoam is the big meanie. However, several hundred have committed to a more aggressive program - this could be for you if you live in a highly committed `green community’ and could aid store usage by limited few - hippy, yuppie, and student oriented trade areas come to mind.     >>>>>>>> RTAR rating - 6 - Just make sure you aren’t the LAST to do this if you are in one of the above stated communities. But, wait, do `environmentalists’ comprise a worthwhile worry or significant market for FF restaurants - not yet. Lastly, however, remember the Karma factor.