Restaurant Trade Area Research

Recently, I conducted the MarketView in an eastern seaboard market at all the units of a particular ADI and all owned by one owner. The MarketView is my name for a type of research design that digs into the fundamentals of any market. All kinds of interesting and useful information comes from doing real marketing research at your stores.

An example of this is shown below:

Store One                                                 Store Two

820,000               2006 Sales                             790,000

13%        Uses This FF Brand Most               24%

20%       Uses This FF At Least 1 Week       42%

161K       Annual Sales To 1+ Week User    331K

20K        Total Repeat Customer Base*        13K    *customer base formula

Smart marketing can address each of these stores specific marketing needs. Only by having real customer based information allows for smart spending of those precious marketing dollars. Make sure to visit my Squidoo page that explains more about the MarketView at www.squidoo.com/tradeareasurveys.

Today’s Restaurant Links

`Former Bojangles Exec’s Now Qdoba Men’

http://www.chainleader.com/article/CA6607112.html?industryid=47555

`Fast Food Shops To Be Banned Near Schools In UK’

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1079655/Fast-food-shops-banned-near-schools.html 

`IS Fast Food Poised For A Fast Fall?’

http://www.forbes.com/markets/2008/10/22/mcdonalds-earnings-closer-markets-equity-cx_mp_1022markets44.html

Thanks for stopping by today — much more is below too. Bookmark this site and return for more updates. If you have some comments we’d love to hear them. 

Hello, welcome back - I hope your Labor Day holiday was relaxing - that said, my thoughts go out to previous restaurant clients in Louisiana. Today, I want to spend this paragraph encouraging restaurant owners to `get the big view’ of their real market situation. To understand that NEXT year - with proper information - you can do real local marketing that impacts your units.

How you ask?

By doing my MarketView research for which you can find more info about at www.squidoo.com/tradeareasurveys — or go to the site for contact information for my services. If you call, make sure to ask me about the project I did for a fast food chain last year that involved doing over 10 stores and testing over 12 new site locations within the market - for under 30,000.00.

Now - onward to today’s restaurant links:

When Sonic Comes To Town

http://blogs.wenatcheeworld.com/thay/2008/08/28/sonic-wenatchees-newest-health-food-restaurant/ Just a fun story about a NEW restaurant for this community - Sonic. Covers the insanity of a grand opening, roller-skates, and the dealing with an unfamiliar menu by the consumer. Includes less than glorified pictures of the product served and at 10 bucks nonetheless.

Athens Burgers Opens New Restaurant

http://www.mantecabulletin.com/main.asp?SectionID=28&SubSectionID=58&ArticleID=59128&TM=16382.6 Here’s a newer concept to read about. Interesting combination.

Slow Food Conference

http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/ent/stories/DN-slowfood_0901gl.ART0.State.Edition1.4da40ac.html More and more stories emphasis is on going local with sources of products. Love the `meet the fisherman’ concept.

Wendy’s Rolls Out Double-Stack Nationwide at 99 Cents

http://sev.prnewswire.com/food-beverages/20080829/CLF006A29082008-1.html  Also, is giving away thousands of double stacks over the next year too - find out how.

Discount Dining

http://www.baltimoresun.com/entertainment/dining/bal-bz.restaurants02sep02,0,3747451.story Covers the story as to how restaurants are responding with lower price points in this economic downturn. Covers the marketing efforts of Boston Market, BJ’s Restaurants and Starbucks to name just a few.

Police Warn about TAKEOVER Robberies

http://www.nrn.com/breakingNews.aspx?id=358002&menu_id=1368  Good advice about this growing concern.

Spying On Suburbia - Eating At Arby’s

http://www.richmondchic.com/index.php/mind-body/article/spying-on-suburbia-a-home-like-arbys/268  Strange to interesting perceptions from this blog about Arby’s — 16.00 for two fast food.

Kiss an Attendent at a Fast Food Restaurant

http://www.latimes.com/theguide/music/la-gd-scavenger1-2008sep1,0,5200506.story Wild scavenger hunt includes wild ideas.

At the corner of Sandy Plains Road and Hwy 92 in North Atlanta you will find a Back Yard Burgers that has gone out of business. Most likely the owners did their due diligence and checked out the basics like traffic counts and the demographic profile of the area. Not only that, I bet what they found sounded perfect for the Back Yard Burgers positioning as an upscale hamburger restaurant. Indeed, the intersection has huge amounts of traffic and the demographics of the area would indicate `families’, plenty of roof tops, and plenty of income.  That said, the fact that a Checkers went out of business at the corner on the opposite side of the street - could have indicated that the location be viewed with caution. (The Checkers challenged an existing McDonald’s. The corner is now home to an Italian sit down restaurant.)

So, what happened? Personally, since I was a VERY light user (3 times in perhaps 3 years) I can’t speak to operations of the unit - but the experiences of my 3 in-store visits went very well. No negatives. So, assuming it wasn’t an operation problem - what gives?

What gives is that you need MORE than perfect demos and traffic counts; you need to understand the real market potential of an intersection. And, the real traffic flows for `your side of the street’.

First off, before you think the intersection was `too busy’ and had huge back-up’s of traffic that no one would want to get `re-involved’ with after visiting the restaurant - forget that. This is a well flowing traffic pattern. That said, most restaurant owners are aware that some intersections are `too busy’ and don’t make a `good spot’ sometimes.

No, it wasn’t that at all. The problem with the traffic counts in this instance was that most of it was `long - flow traffic’ — most of it going miles beyond that intersection as a final destination. Additionally, the location had difficult access due to raised cement in the median - bad access especially can limit great lunch numbers; and females.

Additionally, the trade area likely did not have good daytime worker demographics - as one would assume the `hamburgers’ skews male in positioning - and, likely, not even a strong daytime worker number compared to other intersections with less traffic.

Finally, another word about demographics — a given stores demo’s will almost NEVER fit the demo’s for a 1-3-5 mile area. Most restaurants need to know what subgroups are likely to be important (those with higher indexes) to a normal store like theirs. IF you have a restaurant that features 1/3 lb. burgers — you might want to know the indexing of males within the real trade area. (The real trade area of this store was probably ONLY Sandy Plains Rd. and probably mostly on their side of the traffic flow within 2 miles before Wigley Rd. — NOT a big real trade area.)

But, finally, the real story in this instance - was probably the competitive environment. A Five Guys opened in the direct competitive area, probably cutting off and being `first’ to a large part of Back Yard Burgers lunch traffic and even dinner traffic - and in a more accessible (in and out) location. Splitting the hamburger business with McDonald’s was one thing - 3 way splits - can close a marginal restaurant with poor access to traffic flow.

Looking over potential sites - is a service I’ve provided - find out more about my Trade Area services at www.squidoo.com/tradearearesearch

Today’s Links

Woman Wants To Limit Fast Food Restaurants

http://www.todaystmj4.com/news/local/26152264.html Now that laws have started by activists to limit fast food locations - expect to see your local do gooder getting more and more exposure for such thinking. This is a story about a neighborhood group that says 6 fast foods on a road are enough - too bad for the Church’s Chicken.

Jake Says `Don’t Use The Drive-Thru’

http://poststar.com/wordpress/?p=5836&cat=47    Seeing the miles at zero while sitting at the drive-thru; will bring out the Greens.

The EAT IN Lunch User

http://www.chainleader.com/article/CA6581159.html?industryid=47557 Quarterly survey by Quick - Track; real research and real numbers.

When it flashed across the newswires and TV headlines - most readers were stunned - suddenly, a restaurant icon was `shutting its doors’ - Bennigan’s. No, this was not your lowly newbie who was closing after 50 stores; this was one with hundreds and a history. And, if you have been under a rock for the last 18 hours - the news is that the company owned stores are closing. You will find the link below.

Is there any marketing trade area information in all this? Perhaps.

For example, if a company unit was near a franchisee restaurant - some of that company unit customer base may become part of the large  `occasional’ users customer base of any given unit. Certainly billboard ads in the vicinity of the closed store with an `open stores location’ could be effective - or - targeting the likely home zipcode of the closed store with direct mail. (Perhaps corporate will share such info if they have done the appropriate research at the store level in the past.)

Finally, not ALL of the corporate units would have been `bad’ sales - aggressive restaurateurs could open franchisee units and fill in the void in valid market areas. That said, suddenly the market has many more empty restaurants waiting for a new concept.

Today’s Links

Bennigan’s

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/bennigans-franchising-company-lp-steak/story.aspx?guid=%7BE5283276-F8A1-44C4-8D83-EB9857B37D11%7D&dist=hppr   Franchisee’s to remain open.

Bennigan’s Wake

http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/chi-wed-bennigans-closing-jul30,0,6474654.story Longer, more in-depth read on the industry.

Denny’s Second Quarter Numbers

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/dennys-corporation-reports-results-second/story.aspx?guid=%7B2B41FDD2-AB42-402E-BCB2-42880BCED8F6%7D&dist=hppr Hard to put up `up’ numbers these days.

Banning Fast Food Drive Thru Windows

http://network.nationalpost.com/np/blogs/posted/archive/2008/07/29/better-watch-your-butts-in-calgary.aspx Beware of this sentiment.

Cheesy Macaroni Bites

http://laist.com/2008/07/29/simply_wrong_food_jack_in_the_boxs_1.php New Product of Jack In The Box; interesting product picture.

This blog is saddened to report the continuation of government restrictions into how you run your business and where you run your business. In this instance, the `how’ would be the government demand to use or not use a particular cooking oil (regardless as to the outcome of the final product - including taste - one of the most important attributes to your customer base) and the `where’ is the new restrictions on where fast food restaurants CAN’T be developed. Can fast food brands eventually be expected to fund the `alternative’ restaurants too? After-all, what’s to prevent a city council on deciding that FF restaurants would be `better’ for the community if they weren’t open 7 days a week?

Today’s Links

California Outlaws Trans-fats and Bans Fast Food Outlets in Defined Area

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/northamerica/usa/2461615/Los-Angeles-bans-new-fast-food-outlets-and-California-outlaws-trans-fats.html 

It was funny seeing the 800 plus article titles on this one — only a few positioned the move on trans-fats with a positive headline title. One can only imagine what may happen if politicians turn their interest againist the industry.

Fast Food Goes To The Movies

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/blogs/sfgate/detail?blogid=26&entry_id=28501 

Quick read on the movie tie-in’s currently going on. Specifically tells what each restaurant chain DID on their end of the relationship (T-Shirts for workers, special cups, etc.)

Crowd MOBS Taco Bell Opening

http://www.rutlandherald.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080724/NEWS01/807240408/1002/NEWS01  

This is a wonderful article you don’t want to miss about how folks LOVE getting their fast food. A great counter balance to the desire to BAN fast food elsewhere. ———- One comment however, always be ready for an amazing first opening day crowd and have your operations in order. Remember, one bad experience can turn 15% against a second visit.

Majority Stake in Applebee’s Franchisee Sold

http://www.nrn.com/breakingNews.aspx?id=356918&menu_id=1368

I was involved with Applebee’s findings when they had one unit on Memorial Drive in Atlanta and W.R. Grace was the interested party. Want to have a researcher like that - give me a shout - find my number on my squidoo site www.squidoo.com/tradeaareasurveys .

 11.23 For Lunch At Steak and Shake

http://www.indystar.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080721/BUSINESS09/807210323/1109/BUSINESS09

Yet, somehow, that is not the ultimate problem? Article covers the challenges to the new company leader.

In my decades of doing Trade Area Research, specializing in `attrition estimates’, — I’ve often done projects that involved market expansion considering new store locations that involved one franchisee vs another. Usually, these project originated with companies in which I was the National Supplier of this service (two national fast food chains) but occasionally not (being known by different franchisee’s in the same market who hired me as an arbitrator/fact finder).

Most national fast food brands have a policy concerning `trade area infringment’ - with the establishment of `what level of attrition’ is `acceptable’ with new store development (those `acceptable’ dollars leaving YOUR pocket and bottom line). And, most fast food brands have a policy of `who pays’ for such research too. Want to find out that type of info? — Then send me an e-mail at southernsurveys@aol.com - describe your situation and I will tell you more specifics (please include a contact phone number).

Today’s Restaurant Links

Brown Bagging at Lunch Hurting Restaurant Sales

http://www.qsrmagazine.com/articles/news/story.phtml?id=6996 —A fantastic, research supported, four minute read with many insights - but, perhaps an exaggerated title about brown baggers as the `increase’ is barely measurable (35 increasing to 38 times (a year?)) and is probably within the range of `plus or minus’ for the two compared surveys. Here’s a quote from the article :

“There are a number of factors adversely affecting the mid-day meal business at restaurants, and brown-bagging is one of them,” says Harry Balzer, vice president, The NPD Group, and author of Eating Patterns in America. “Certainly the economy, growing unemployment, the erosion of disposable personal income, slow-down in number of women entering the workforce, and more telecommuting options are also influencing consumers’ lunchtime behaviors

Frankly, to me, the decrease of sales is likely the erosion of disposable income and telecommuting - brown bagging is the result as opposed to a cause. Indeed, for consumers living in under-penetrated fast food markets (one FF several miles away) the increase in GAS prices is probably a factor too. After all, the 3.99 combo is REALLY 5.99 if the roundtrip is 10 miles and you get 20 miles a gallon.

The reality of smaller trade areas is increasing - and - not just because of the gas price — I will talk more about that in future posts.

KFC’s Vegetarian Sandwich - Isn’t

http://consumerist.com/5027777/kfcs-vegetarian-sandwich-isnt-stop-kidding-yourself-that-fast-food-restaurants-have-vegetarian-options  I almost had to laugh at this article due to the HARD vegetarian position. Indeed, make sure to read the comments as they are most insightful.

Drive-Thru Reseach Study 2007

http://www.qsrmagazine.com/reports/drive-thru_time_study/  This is a MUST read about how different fast food brands are dealing with Drive-thru business - vital, of course, to nearly all FF and the bottom line. This is not a short read but worth it. Here’s a sample table: