Restaurant Trade Area Research

As far as the Woodstock Georgia fast food market is concerned  - restaurants continue to be under competitive pressures with strong discounting and `new and interesting’ promotions to offset the continued shrinking of customer bases. Indeed, just recently, ABC - the Atlanta Bread Company in Woodstock had a Sunday evening `Murder theater’ (with actors of course) near closing time for which tickets at 10.00 per head were sold. These `patrons’ would have an additional chance to purchase food and dessert from the unit too - for enjoyment when watching the play.

And, the discounting continues at all levels from Waffle Houses 4.99 meals, to 4.00 KFC meals, to 99 cent Dunkin Donut specials, to the buck level at Checkers, Wendy’s and — whatever special Arby’s has going at a various promotion period. In the nearby Sandy Plains/Shallowford area the Boston Market was doing bounce back coupons for buy one meal - get one meal —— that’s up to a 6.99 value — (and one our family took advantage of) and up to 50% off. And, within the past month, Arby’s was giving the `RoastBurger’ away with the purchase of a drink (& Quizno’s also gave away it’s small sandwich.)

Couple all this with promotions from the last posting - many of which are still going on in one form or another (including daypart pricing) - and you have a very sensitive price market the likes of which haven’t been seen in a long long time, if ever. Increasingly, `eating out’ is positioned by the media as the one way that Americans are cutting back and saving money. And, again increasingly, the eating out `habit’ is being broken at some level.

Indeed, the extreme multi times a week users (4+ times a week)  - while usually not  a huge element in most fast foods - is largely gone - as these hardest regulars have become part of the once a week users - generally. And, while most of the two times a week or once a week users have hung on in most circumstances - especially in white collar, lunch oriented restaurants - those users are probably most reduced in the evening timeframes.

Probably most affected frequency wise in customer bases are the occasional once a month type users - who have often fallen into the `never use anymore’ or seldom use category - as consumers tighten up into their most favorite choices. NEW customers, once a mainstay at 3-8% of all fast food customers is again - almost nil. (Why waste precious money on places without a proven track record?)

So, with all this - with restaurants of all kinds closing (which does help others who survive in degrees) - with frequency rates dropping - with price pressures at every turn - the question must be asked if this is the bottom to be endured - or - a new normal? (No one wants to think it could be worse - and indeed - as competition closes - the `replacement effect’ of the `new meal occasions’ to be filled in the local market - will modify - to a degree - further downturns.)

Indeed, if the downturn continues for much longer - say - another year (an overly negative view compared to consensus) - we could see some companies go to a more innovative way of pricing their food products. Perhaps combos will once again reflect a real `savings’ as opposed to an easy way to order in a few words. Perhaps we will see the drive thru priced in a different manner - compared to inside customers. Perhaps drinks will become cheaper at the drive-thru (as no re-fills occur).

Indeed, perhaps we will see `customer loyalty’ cards be set at effective levels - buy two combos get one free - for example —- as opposed to cards that required too many uses to motivate a customer base. Or, even `in-store’ contests to motivate the bigger instore spender - or - targeting the very largest purchasers (only) with a `discount’ on that next purchase (setting the level at transactions in the highest 5% total) - showing recognition of these remaining `special’ customers.

Because, as Dylan said, the times,  they are a changin - and, previous practices and marketing approaches - especially if they all sound the same - may have little useful effect. It may take new approaches and new ideas of consumerism to survive to the other side of the downturn - and - it’s not too early to begin to consider such ideas.

Hello store owners and corporate restaurant folk - welcome to the Saturday edition of Restaurant Trade Area Research - the restaurant blog of Rick Phillips  - a market researcher with over three decades of real fast food customer research at the street level (in the stores).

Today’s topic - drive thru operations. —- Over the years, many attributes have been associated with drivers/customers experiences while waiting to purchase your product without leaving their comfort cage (the car). But only one attribute will almost immediately turn away a customer if they have any alternatives for food - the long line before the speaker. Only with previous good experiences with the restaurant at the drive thru (with long lines), will maintain the customer in line for today.

With the drive thru often contributing over 50% in sales - this is not a lecture on the need for speed. And, indeed, many issues related to drive-thru’s will be explored in future postings. So, what this post is imploring in all operators minds is the new reality of 4.00 gas - to the point that the operator realizes that `while idling’ the customer is probably having this thought `what a waste’ (of money, more than time).

Marginal customers to the fast food customer base may be weakened more than usual by drive thru delays - especially those in SUV’s (if you get what I mean). So, this is more a time than ever to get your best crew on the window - don’t idle your drive-thru traffic away.

Now, onto today’s links.

Today’s Restaurant links (July 12th 2008)

Second Q Wendy’s Sales Up

Link - http://www.bizjournals.com/wichita/stories/2008/07/07/daily32.html

Up over 1% at franchisee locations - up at company stores too - after a down first Q.      RTAR - rating - 8 - Being from Ohio many years ago; yeah for Wendy’s. Perhaps the `choice’ of sides attribute helps.

Ruby Tuesday’s Same Store Sales Off for 4th Q

Down over 5% at both company and franchised units this Q. That said, many indicators look good according to the two minute article with quotes from the founder. >>>>>>>>>> RTAR  rating - 5 - No one likes sales to fall significantly at a signature national restaurant (could it be those who loved the German Potato Salad?) - that said, much is sited in the article of importance including the satisfaction scores. So; is it a shrinking total trade area? (Trade area research on stores with prior existing studies done at the store level reveals this information. Indeed, this is the exact information I’ve given to clients on repeats within their markets.) Or, just the competitiveness for the discretionary dollar?

Green Fast Food - Really Here or a Green Dream

Link: http://www.socialfunds.com/news/article.cgi/2529.html  This article is about a 4 minute read. It rehashs alot of the grist of what the environmenalists want out of companies and fast food restaurants inparticular. Styrofoam is the big meanie. However, several hundred have committed to a more aggressive program - this could be for you if you live in a highly committed `green community’ and could aid store usage by limited few - hippy, yuppie, and student oriented trade areas come to mind.     >>>>>>>> RTAR rating - 6 - Just make sure you aren’t the LAST to do this if you are in one of the above stated communities. But, wait, do `environmentalists’ comprise a worthwhile worry or significant market for FF restaurants - not yet. Lastly, however, remember the Karma factor.

Hello to everyone in the restaurant industry, welcome to my new blog, my name is Rick Phillips. In this blog, I intend to draw on over 30 years of direct, in the field, restaurant research that I have conducted for numerous restaurant chains. Some of this research was qualitative - focus groups or one-on-one research; most of it was quantitative - done on-site with 10’s of thousands of restaurant customers over three decades.

Ideally, this blog will speak to the restaurant owner who wants to read frequently about store operations, marketing issues and promoting ones business. It will often feature links to daily stories in the restaurant field - spiked  with  my commentary and analysis. I hope you enjoy the daily links - such as these three today July 10th 2008:

Denny’s Responds To America’s Demand For Breakfast

Link - http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/dennys-responds-americas-demand-breakfast/story.aspx?guid=%7B0911022C-AD79-4B44-8B1C-7376F7D1A870%7D&dist=hppr  Denny’s introduces  the `Denny’s Dome’ to facilitate To Go business. The `Denny’s Dome’ is an innovative, multi-level and task, carrying device that seems to handle any type of full sized breakfast - and keeps it fresh and hot up to a half-hour.You have to see the picture of this multi-leveled  see-thru container - which even has a method for keeping foods crispy (read to find out the science).  >>>>>>>>>>>> RATR Rating - 9 - Interestingly, in the 1980’s I conducted one-on-one research for several package good companies; even in the 80’s `tupperware’ type of containers could store foods at the same temperture they were first stored at  for HOURS. The funny part was research respondents were worried about `bacteria’ forming if the food was kept hot for an extended period — but - at 1/2 hour - that should not be a perception problem. Indeed, this is a great idea and seems like the top of the line product/device that `to-go’ food customers may have been waiting for. It also could increase the size of the stores trade area since the product would remain warm to take home to nearly any local area. For example, it could permit the `drive thru the area’  customer traffic to `stop in and pick up’ a breakfast before driving home 8 miles away - such as having a store by a Home Depot or other big box store. Additionally, in these cash strapped times, it allows for the customer to avoid the tip, possibly increasing customer frequency (viewed as a surcharge these days?) - that said, many tip at the counter on the pick-up orders.

Lack of Advertising May Have Doomed Fast Food Restaurant

Link - http://www.beaumontenterprise.com/business/local/lack_of_advertising_may_have_shut_down_fast-food_restaurant_07-08-2008_18_17_04.html Article indicates that having a poor location, and difficult obstructions to your restaurant - along with having an unfamiliar product (being the only franchisee in a market) AND a lack of advertising and community invovlement - MIGHT have been reasons for a Krystal’s demise.  >>>>>>>>>>>> RATR Rating - 7 - One of the things this blog will do is feature stories about the success or lack of success of various fast food restaurants - chains or individual stores. Indeed, my experience in seeing first hand hundreds of fast food outlets - both high and low sales units - provides me an overview of characteristics important to customers. This article, which could be written about many thousands of restaurants nationwide, is an example. One finding I’ve had for example is the near absolute neccessity of making flow of customers onto the restaurant property mindless - hurdles should NEVER have to be jumped - especially if you value your female customer base. The article implies that perhaps the demograhics weren’t the exact fit either - while demographic `fits’ might be nice - the size of home and worker bases within specific milage is more important to success. Often your demos for a restaurant won’t fit the area - but - your restaurant does fine by dominating within your subgrouping (besting your competitive environment). Finally, of course, being NEW or ALONE in a market (brandwise) does usually require some outreach or education of your market about your restaurant - and probably does require even some advertising. But, what RTAR suggests is that when one’s unit is in sales trouble (as opposed to a unit that never has good sales, after initial opening month) is to look first at the competitive environment (new restaurants) and then at operations (frequently some daypart - ie: employee group - is the problem; this will first show up slowly as only the Heaviest store user is aware of the operation problem - they are forgiving as they love the product or the location - but they will reduce frequency. If the problem, daypart related, continues - a unit can be in for a big decline suddenly after 6 weeks or so.) Finally, it’s unlikely your store will go out of business do to a lack of `community involvement’ - but - obviously, a banner at the local softball field - can be worth it’s weight in G.

Fast Food Veggie and Fruit Carts

Link - http://www.redorbit.com/news/business/1468962/call_for_fastfood_fruit_and_veg_carts/ >>>>>>>

RATR  Rating - 6 - Story is about a call in England to favor push carts that feature fruits and veggies so that folks get their needed five servings daily. —– Could the `States’ be next? Could real food be the next `brand extension’ for FF restaurants?

Thanks so much for reading this first blog post - To find out more about my services - please use my blogroll to my other `restaurant sites’. Please bookmark this site, I will try to post 3 or 4 times a week the type of stories owners of restaurants want to read.