The other day RBC Capital Markets released the results of a monthly tracking survey of interest to the restaurant industry - here’s the link - http://www.nrn.com/breakingNews.aspx?id=365256. As a market researcher, perhaps most interesting - to me - was the headline “Restaurants May See Diners Spending More”. This statement was, of course, seemingly backed up by the results of the survey - but, really folks, it’s time to be a little more realistic and accurate about `survey results’. (That said, the title doesn’t over promise - just spins non convincing data.)
The `facts’ to support the headline were gathered from the survey with a sample of over 2,700 respondents - and the survey showed an `increase’ - from 5% to 6% - in the percentage of people who said they were planning to spend more at restaurants over the next three months. The key fact in support of the headline.
So, you mean that as we come into summer, and vacations, that the sliver of folks who take these surveys to heart and wording at its true meaning - might realize - that because of `vacation’ and not being home as much (or substitute the end of being cooped up because of winter weather) - that they `plan’ on `more’ restaurant purchases in the next three months? And, THAT, is what we are to be encouraged by?
Oh, please.
(And, what if last months survey results were 5.4% rounded to 5% and this months was 5.6% rounded to 6%. Even with a sample of 2,700 it’s hard to point to hard evidence with a 1% point move.)
Also, the survey indicates just how `the down’ sentiment and usage of restaurants has been - via the poll. And, supposedly, this also has `glimmers of hope’(?) - in that data - compared to the previous month - this months survey showed that the % of people who say that they are planning on eating less at restaurants in the next three months `dropped’ from 50% to 44% - and, indeed, that looks like good news - until you think deeper about it.
The obvious first — 44%, nearly half of your customers are still trying to cut back on their restaurant usage - a nearly record high number probably.
If this survey is `rolling’ - theoretically - each month - 1/3 of the sample is `doing’ the effect of the `answer’ from the previous month (meaning the folks of three months ago who said `eating less’ - will have - three months later - adopted a lower frequency level) - and when - `re-interviewed’ (theoritically three months later) would be at that `new level’.
Let me explain more. ———- If three months ago 50% anticipated (planned) on eating `less’ at restaurants — one would expect that they indeed cut back to a new level — which the restaurant owner — hopes they DON’T decrease again — hoping that they are now going to answer to such a hypothetical question “about the same (reduced) level” — one certainly - doesn’t hope for those folks - who already reduced their level of restaurant usage to be saying “I’m going to be reducing it more”.
Further, if 6% fewer people are saying they will be reducing their restaurant usage - why did only 1% (1/6th of that sample) move into `increasing’? Could it be that those 6% are doing exactly as I say above — finding a new `minimal’ leveling off of their own restaurant usage - while others are STILL reducing?
Honestly, one would have to be `creative’ to say the new poll is good news. To me, IMO, as a research analyst, it seems to reflect the `New Normal’ - which is establishing a reduced level of restaurant usage into the future - more and more.
Not only that, the poll goes on to talk about other economic numbers they crunch that also seem to reflect a `bottoming’ if not an outright `surge’ in consumer optimism. Yes, a surge.
All I can say is - Really? In a worsening job market? In which, the worst on the employment side of our Great Recession is yet to come? Is that a believable number or is something going on in even the asking of the question and the nations dynamics.
Or, is this consumer number reflective of something else - like new loyalty to a new very different president - more of a hope than anything else. And, indeed, the 38% confidence number (it’s not really called a confidence number but is a roll up of similar characteristics) - up from an 8% reading the month before (do things economically seem 4 times better to you in the last 30 days?) — and, this percentage (38) is strikingly similar to the true hard core percentage of Democrat loyalties and percentages.
And, the poll, in March, after Obama was dissed in the press for being `negative’ and `too realistic’ about our economy in February (when the poll bottomed) - found Obama, in March - being `positive’ with his rhetoric (responding to the critics in Feb.) - indeed, much more-so - (do you remember the change in tone).
And, I bet, the result seen in this survey, was this supposed `huge surge’ in confidence. (The market was also in a bear bounce in March.) Indeed, if such confidence had really returned - the `more often’ number on the planning to eat out more in the next three months - would have spiked too. And, it didn’t.
Finally, I encourage you to look at this incredible visual map of the job losses that have hit each of the 3,000 counties in America - again, this map - which shows the change from job gain to job loss from Jan. 2007 to Feb. 2009 — will leave your head spinning - and in dis-belief — that a surge in confidence is already underway. http://slate.com/id/2216238/
Thanks for visiting today - make a point to read my best posts of 2008 right here http://restauranttradearearesearch.com/important-posts-in-2008/ – and, please visit my Squidoo page too at www.squidoo.com/tradeareasurveys- to learn much more about the research I most suggest to restaurant owners - the MarketView.
