Restaurant Trade Area Research

13. April 2011

Red Lobsters Perhaps Surprising Demographics

Here’s a detailed article about WHY Red Lobsters demographics may be indexed strongly with Black customers - hint: think `menu census’ (a great form of research too) - http://atlantapost.com/2011/04/05/understanding-red-lobsters-popularity-amongst-african-american-diners/

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One way that FF restaurants are defining their `upscaleness’ over the last few years has been `Milkshakes’ (with a capital M) - such as this new premium offering from Chick-Fil-A - Chick-fil-A Whips Up New Banana Pudding Milkshake - http://www.restaurantnews.com/chick-fil-a-whips-up-new-banana-pudding-milkshake/

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Taco Bell has responded to the `fake meat’ rumors that some charge or accept with an open ear - such as here - http://www.thatsfit.com/2011/03/18/do-you-believe-taco-bell-is-real-meat/ - with an advertising response http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0DeJGN_QfTQ - speaking up for content (sourcing) is VERY important. Good Move.

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Speaking of content - Dunkin’ Donuts Serves Up New Big ‘N Toasty Breakfast Sandwich - http://www.restaurantnews.com/dunkin-donuts-serves-up-new-big-n-toasty-breakfast-sandwich/ - DD continues to make inroads into the ONLY growing daypart segment (really) breakfast. That said, I’ve seen the ads and can’t help but think that drive-thru users (and possibly road eaters) couldn’t help but get YOKEY when biting into the sandwich. (However, they do make the fried egg yoke looked pretty cooked.)

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2. March 2011

New Arby’s Branding - `It’s Good Mood Food’

Continuing the theme that fast food is `good’ - such as KFC’s slogan - That’s So S-O G DoubleO D Gooood” - Arby’s has launched its latest effort with `It’s Good Mood Food’. ——— This positioning statement  brings to life the brand’s positioning – “Exciting tastes you can feel good about … every day.” http://www.restaurantnews.com/arbys-announces-new-its-good-mood-food-marketing-campaign/ - “This campaign is focused on our target audience, Balance Seekers, who want and need to eat fast food because of their busy lifestyles, but do not want to feel guilty about eating it. They’re telling us that Arby’s has something over other fast food restaurants… a balance of higher quality, more wholesome food that they can feel good about eating,” said Steve Davis, chief marketing officer, Arby’s Restaurant Group, Inc. “We like to think that stopping by Arby’s makes their day a little brighter. With this campaign, we’re recommitting our team to inspire good moods each and every day.”

Whereas the rollout was given this treatment at NRN - http://www.nrn.com/article/arby%E2%80%99s-puts-premium-beef-menu - Robert Kraut, Arby’s senior vice president for advertising and marketing communications, said the sandwich was targeting about 35 percent of Arby’s customers — those heavy fast food users “who don’t necessarily feel good about the choices that are available to them” and are looking for something that’s better for them than a hamburger, but not necessarily a light meal.

Here’s a link to a sample commercial - http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=Gzz0wY2Vobk

The Arby’s moves are not limited to a new commercial flight with a new set of words to absorb, as Arby’s has finally moved into THE premium word associated with Beef - Angus - with a Angus Three Cheese & Bacon Sandwich. It may be the first of several Angus choices in the future. Prices are 4.99 for the sandwich. Robert Kraut, Arby’s senior vice president for advertising and marketing communications, said the sandwich was targeting about 35 percent of Arby’s customers — those heavy fast food users “who don’t necessarily feel good about the choices that are available to them”Arby’s is also now offering a 1.99 side salad with two types of lettuce, cheese and tomato that can be substituted for Fries in the combo pricing. And, a premium summer milkshake is ready in the wings. Finally add to that the new `Steakhouse’ onion rings and new bite size breakfast dessert - and lastly new pep rallies and crew trainings designed to make the customer’s day special - and you have nearly a whole new focus and intensity. (Will they be SHOUTING hello and goodbye like at the local Capt. D’s?)

So, what’s my take on it all?

Well, first, it’s important to note that Arby’s HAD to do something new -  as the impact of the `new normal’ was about as steep on the brand as for any of the major FF players. And, in general, Arby’s follows thru with playing catch-up to some of the major trends such as premium Angus offerings, a premium side salad that is substitutible for combos - and something new during breakfast - finally becoming a competitor for all three positionings with other FF brands. Additionally, the more upscale Onion Rings and `unique’ but I’m not sure premium Milkshake offerings are steps in the right direction and competitiveness in terms of Milkshakes. (Who ever thought Milkshakes would be NEW again?)

So, Arby’s has followed thru to continue to enhance the `quality food’ perception advantages it once was semi-privy to in the FF arena; but, had lost it’s advantage of having, due to chains like McDonald’s `upscaling’ of various items; and, similarly priced sandwich chains such as Panera Bread or Atlanta Bread Company upscaling at comparible non-tipping prices.

And, the 4.99 pricing of the Angus sandwich is something that should add to franchisees bottomline - something much needed with the addition of the 1.00 and low priced value choices - pushed hard last year to establish a market presence at the price point against long time players.

I also like the slogan more than some of Arby’s recent offerings such as `I’m Thinking Arby’s’ or `I’d Marry A Goat’ or that 5.01 combo pricing, or Tastes Growing Up.  At least this slogan is talking about the food, a long time Arby’s advantage and attribute needing a revival in the Arby’s customers mind. And, what is NOT to like about trying to drive this whole new positioning from the bottom up with the crew memebers and management. ——————- It’s very like a line being drawn in the sand for a new beginning attitude. (And a good time of year for it coming into spring too.)

BUT, ———- you knew there would be a but - right?

Are heavy FF users really looking for a 4.99 sandwich price point? Searching for new sandwiches for 5.00 in the new normal? (That isn’t a foot long.) And, wouldn’t the marketplace of consumers that isn’t finding at FF restaurants a healthier mix - also, not going to be interested in a Three Cheese Bacon sandwich? (Will this really be pulling the women back to Arby’s from Panera Bread?)

Also, just to be picky, IF someone was in a `good mood’ - they likely wouldn’t be choosing FF - as in the new normal, fast casual seems the more likely target for the consumer. And, IF someone was having a hankering for `mood food’ - ie:comfort food - once again, FF would not be a first choice for the consumer, (think Piccadilly’s, Waffle House,). And, IF they wanted their food to put them in a `good mood’ - again, FF is simply not the first choice (think upscale upscale).

However, the bottom line to all of this is finally a positive for Arby’s, who now is a player for the 1.00 price point, combo subsituting, Angus seeking, Premium sandwich and Milkshake markets, of which it had almost no presence within until recently. Arby’s products have long had a uniqueness to them, and by joining the mainstream of where FF is going, they have helped themselves change accordingly with these new above trending positionings.

Ultimately, however, it will be a process - as Arby’s is playing catch-up largely IMO. And, 5.00 Angus sandwiches simply will not be getting the attention of most women, now a signficant portion of the FF market;  (Menu census research stuff.) nor of those who recently became users because of the 1.00 menu - those who didn’t trade down (Yikes). Because IF one were to judge who might be made most happy by Arby’s new moves - the big eater man who loves his Angus and Premium Onion Rings and Soft Drink - and who spends @ 9.00 in the process - is probably wondering why beer isn’t on the menu.

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The Angus sandwich is reviewed here - http://www.slashfood.com/2011/03/01/arbys-angus-three-cheese-and-bacon-sandwich-reviewed/?icid=main%7Chtmlws-main-w%7Cdl13%7Csec1_lnk3%7C204094 - it got a `B’. (Possible grade inflation based on review IMO.)

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25. February 2011

Greenberg: Restaurant Investors Living in Denial?

Here’s the opening tease from the article link:  `Inflation and restaurants is not a new theme, but add gasoline prices and the mixture could be explosive.’  - http://www.cnbc.com/id/41430184

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More ways our society is changing via the Restaurant Industry - Nearly 50 Percent of Restaurants Owned by Women - http://www.restaurantnews.com/nearly-50-percent-of-restaurants-owned-by-women/

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The funding issue - United Capital Finances $2 million for Five Guys Burgers and Fries Operator - http://www.restaurantnews.com/united-capital-finances-2-million-for-five-guys-burgers-and-fries-operator/ - has lent to many franchise brands.

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More FREE stuff -Perkins Giving Away Free Pancakes on ‘Perkins Pancake Day’ - http://www.restaurantnews.com/perkins-giving-away-free-pancakes-on-perkins-pancake-day/

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Some new restaurant products being marketed - McDonald’s Angus Third Pounder Line Gets Bolder With Chipotle BBQ Bacon - http://www.restaurantnews.com/mcdonalds-angus-third-pounder-line-gets-bolder-with-chipotle-bbq-bacon/ - three hot words in one Angus, Chipotle, Bacon. ——— Here, Jack In The Box continues the Upscaling of Milkshakes with FF - Jack in the Box Shakes Up Menu with New Mint Oreo Cookie Shake - http://www.restaurantnews.com/jack-in-the-box-shakes-up-menu-with-new-mint-oreo-cookie-shake/ — and - here, Domino’s looks to strengthen a brand extension -Domino’s Introduces New Wings and Boneless Chicken - http://www.restaurantnews.com/dominos-introduces-new-wings-and-boneless-chicken/

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More, soon.

4. October 2010

Ultra Affluent Hugely Increase Fast Food Spending

Those who charge 7,000 or more a month to credit cards and who meet a specified income level - increase quick service usage by 24% - three times the rate of other demographics. From the link:

“Subconsciously, I think I’m saving money by spending less on food, but my spending somewhere else must be going up, because the amount on my credit card is not going down,” Gutsell said to the WSJ, as he ate an Extra Value Meal at a McDonald’s.  - http://eatdrinkandbe.org/article/index.fast-food-rich-people-015

Yes, this is how screwed up the new normal is.

In other news about McDonald’s and the new normal - McDonald’s May Drop Health Plan - http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703431604575522413101063070.html

20 New Items and a re-designed menu is what IHOP positions to re-invigorate customer base - http://www.restaurantnews.com/ihop-serves-up-new-menu-full-of-innovative-choices-to-satisfy-any-craving/ - (come to think of it - while it’s been years since I choose IHOP - it did have a confusing overwhelming menu).

Jack In The Box closes 40 company stores - http://www.forbes.com/2010/09/29/jack-in-the-box-to-close-40-restaurants-marketnewsvideo.html - the new normal does not bode well for turnarounds.

Creamy premium MilkShakes tested at Checkers - http://www.restaurantnews.com/checkers-brings-a-cold-wave-to-sunny-south-florida/ joining the growing trend in top of the line shakes.

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18. August 2010

Fast Food Trading Up To Catch Customers Trading Down

The evidence is starting to pile up about one response to the new normal is that Fast Food brands should enhance the  restaurant experience available - almost regardless of price point - because in large part it is aimed at those `trading down’ from the sit-down and tip waitress at lunch segment - and at the already existing non-tip fast casual (such as a Five Guys).

Examples include Wendy’s new redone Premium Salads priced at around 6.00 - and the large variety of `Angus’ Big Burgers available at most of the major chains now. (Can Buffalo Burgers be far away?) It would also include the upscaling of Milkshakes at Chick-Fil-A and Hardee’s - to the recent bone-in BBQ of Burger King - to the upscaling, at least perception wise, to many McDonald offerings such as the yogurt choices and coffee.

These new positionings, which often include a dash of health perceptions mixed with a sprinkle of indulgence, can be fairly and profitably priced within the fast food price points compared to fast casual and especially when compared to ANY RESTAURANT THAT DEPENDS ON TIPS FOR ITS EMPLOYEES. As today’s customer, in the new normal, is no longer disregarding any `additional charges’ as frivolous.

Indeed, when today’s restaurant using customer sees a Chili’s ad about the Burgers choices (with fries) starting at 5.99 - they know that - even getting water (the continuing trade-down) - that with tax their bill will be pushing 6.50 - which with tip (can you really tip under a dollar in a sit-down environment with table cloths) would be another buck (or two to not look cheap) - making the 5.99 advertised price point, more like 7.50+ and they are still drinking water. (The 1.79 and up prices on drinks at these places do them no help perceptually either). Indeed, throw in the drink, tax, (and now a two dollar tip) and you are talking 10.00 nearly - for the cheapest 5.99 advertised price point.

And, perceptions like that - add up to Fast Food brands having some opportunity for brand extensions with good profit price points. Doing this, while retaining the `value’ and yes - even the `dollarish’ price points too. (Dollarish (things under 1.49) would be a fun positioning.)

Lastly, since the new normal could be here for years and years, expect this trend in Fast Food brands to be a continuing process as brands find profitable brand extensions once thought of as not possible or too out of character for FF. Does this mean `value sized portions’ of something as exotic as `Prime Rib’ - before you say impossible - remember, this is the new normal. Crabcakes anyone?

Here’s some thoughts of a 50 year old multi time a day FF eater - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T2H_pEFuSSo - and more about my services is right here www.squidoo.com/tradeareasurveys too.

1. June 2010

It Might Take `The Works’ For Restaurants In The `New Normal’

Welcome to Restaurant Trade Area Research - the restaurant blog written by a 30+ year restaurant researcher who has personally  interviewed thousands and thousands of fast food customers. (How’s that for a mouthful?) - Today’s topic, what seems to be the new need - `shooting the works’ to maintain or grow market share in the `new normal’.

Examples include:

Expanded Dayparting Focus - Subway going into the breakfast market is the first to come to mind - Daypart pricing is also notable with `2-4 pm’ reduced beverage costs (Steak & Shake — Sonic) — Weekpart Combo Specials , such as Moe’s Thursday Two for One’s - Subway’s after 5 footlong pricing, etc.

Seasonal dayparting — summers `late night positioning’ has been going on for years (open til 2Am on weekends type of stuff), and, it’s been noted recently that in the casual niche, 12AM or later, was recently claimed in the Atlanta media market by Applebee’s. At Fast Foods, `summer late nights’ is almost a requirement for some (Wendy’s, Taco Bell) but is an opportunity for others too (such as a Krystal’s potential muchie crowd,  or even sandwich niche restaurant).

Outrageous Product - The incredible focus on low price points within advertising (which has muddied the field) has made new product introductions even more important to appeal to the `trier-rejecters’/aware non-users of any fast food brand. One method to get attention is the outrageous product - such as KFC’s Double Chicken Sandwich. And, most recently Burger King’s move into Bone-In Ribs - would be an `unexpected’ example of a `new product’ that should `create new trial’ - especially with good word of mouth - especially during summer. (Perfect `season’ new product introduction.)

Expand Competition Into Other Niches - Recent examples of this include McDonald’s continued focus on beverages such as premium coffee and other choices. Burger Kings new Ribs carves out part of the sit-down market (and the `upscale’ `trade down’) as does it’s Brunch positioning in some markets. The new `upscale’ Milkshakes by Chic-Fil-A, Hardee’s and Zaxby’s –> reach into the `Dairy Queen’/Baskin Robbins niche.

The `Health’ Market - Long heralded as the next sure thing (only problem was that in the 80’s-90’s market was still non-existent) , the `Healthy Fast Food’ market may finally be available - due in large to the already established `Bakery’ niche being taken ALREADY by the female demographic that has turned FROM fast food choices in the last 8 years or so, - to places like Panera Bread or Atlanta Bread Company or others. To me, it seems the natural ones to attack this would be sandwich chains like Quizno’s - Blimpie’s - Subway.

Upgraded Products/Serving Quality - Angus Beef now is an example of offering the `upgraded product at a premium price’ niche. Obviously it also attacks the `fast casual’ growing segment (the stepdown from casual tipping establishments). I’ve already mentioned BK’s Ribs. KFC roasted chicken could be seen by some as an upgrade in health perception.

Selling Branded Products — To me, it is a little self-defeating - BUT - White Castle has frozen product as do many other restaurant chains. To me, I’ve never found these pre-packaged foods to be as appetizing. How about you? Then again, Dunkin Donuts coffee seems logical - and I know that I’d buy a Big Mac Sauce if it was ever offered.

Fancy, Social, E-Mail Marketing Database Building - To me,  working with a stores known customer bases information - and the customer base itself - is VERY attractive too - and is needed to not lose an edge to the competition. That said, some areas seem to have the potential to eventually become overdone and self-defeating (the free food promotion costs - or extreme motivational discounts) and eventually will have it’s `day-come’ due to overuse.

For example, lets say you sign up with a store chain that will provide you a coupon code every time you go to their restaurant trade area — if you signed up with multiple chains you eventually would not wade thru the offerings and IF you did act on one - it would be the one `giving the most savings’. Coupon people are indeed driven by costs - which will drive down your profits and establish a two-tier payment pricing - and confuse the customer base about the real price/value of your products. GPS `coupons’ will not replace friendly smiles, eye contact and good operations. (Within this blog I’ve talked about specific marketing that can be done with your EXISTING customer base via ONE question frequency targeting - or - NO question `menu’- total purchase targeting.)

The `New Marketing’ for the `New Normal’ goes way beyond buying the 25-54 demo slightly focused on one sex - and expecting success. No, the new normal demands running on all cylinders in multiple directions - and catering to a stores unique customer base.

Thanks for reading today - if you check out my sidebar - you may find a category of interest to you. You can also read more about my MarketView research at www.squidoo.com/tradeareasurveys .

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